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Harley-Davidson, Inc.
HOGConsumer CyclicalNYSEUS
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Estimates, scoring, valuation assumptions, and peer comparison in one research surface.
Change the assumptions to see how revenue growth, margins, and exit multiples can move fair value.
| Year | Revenue | Margin | Profit | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.47B | 7.6% | $339.96M | $416.01M | N/A |
| 2027 | $4.66B | 7.6% | $354.24M | $433.48M | $394.07M |
| 2028 | $4.86B | 7.6% | $369.12M | $451.68M | $373.29M |
| 2029 | $5.06B | 7.6% | $384.62M | $470.65M | $353.61M |
| 2030 | $5.27B | 7.6% | $400.77M | $490.42M | $334.96M |
| 2031 | $5.49B | 7.6% | $417.61M | $511.02M | $317.30M |
Projects EPS forward, applies an exit P/E, then discounts the result back to today.
| Base EPS | $2.78 | 2025-12-31 |
| EPS growth | -18.5% | Forecast years: 5 |
| Future EPS | $1.00 | EPS × (1 + G)^5 |
| Base P/E | 7.3 | P/E |
| Future price | $7.297 | Future EPS × P/E |
| Fair value today | $4.531 | PV @ 10.0% |
| 30% safety price | $3.172 | Margin of safety |
| 50% safety price | $2.265 | Margin of safety |
| Discount rate \\ Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $63.245 | $70.637 | $80.717 |
| 10.0% | $55.745 | $61.195 | $68.322 |
| 11.0% | $49.828 | $53.977 | $59.234 |