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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
ZTOIndustrialsNYSECN
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Estimates, scoring, valuation assumptions, and peer comparison in one research surface.
Change the assumptions to see how revenue growth, margins, and exit multiples can move fair value.
| Year | Revenue | Margin | Profit | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $47.76B | 18.5% | $8.84B | $5.87B | N/A |
| 2027 | $51.87B | 18.5% | $9.60B | $6.38B | $5.80B |
| 2028 | $56.33B | 18.5% | $10.42B | $6.93B | $5.73B |
| 2029 | $61.17B | 18.5% | $11.32B | $7.52B | $5.65B |
| 2030 | $66.43B | 18.5% | $12.29B | $8.17B | $5.58B |
| 2031 | $72.15B | 18.5% | $13.35B | $8.87B | $5.51B |
Projects EPS forward, applies an exit P/E, then discounts the result back to today.
| Base EPS | $10.91 | 2025-12-31 |
| EPS growth | +0.9% | Forecast years: 5 |
| Future EPS | $11.41 | EPS × (1 + G)^5 |
| Base P/E | 13.2 | P/E |
| Future price | $150.61 | Future EPS × P/E |
| Fair value today | $93.517 | PV @ 10.0% |
| 30% safety price | $65.462 | Margin of safety |
| 50% safety price | $46.759 | Margin of safety |
| Discount rate \\ Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $23.196 | $25.662 | $29.025 |
| 10.0% | $20.703 | $22.521 | $24.899 |
| 11.0% | $18.738 | $20.122 | $21.875 |