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Upstart Holdings, Inc.
UPSTFinancial ServicesNASDAQUS
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Estimates, scoring, valuation assumptions, and peer comparison in one research surface.
Change the assumptions to see how revenue growth, margins, and exit multiples can move fair value.
| Year | Revenue | Margin | Profit | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.08B | 5.0% | $53.78M | -$165.63M | N/A |
| 2027 | $1.51B | 5.0% | $75.29M | -$231.88M | -$210.80M |
| 2028 | $2.11B | 5.0% | $105.40M | -$324.64M | -$268.29M |
| 2029 | $2.95B | 5.0% | $147.56M | -$454.49M | -$341.46M |
| 2030 | $4.13B | 5.0% | $206.59M | -$636.29M | -$434.59M |
| 2031 | $5.78B | 5.0% | $289.22M | -$890.80M | -$553.12M |
Projects EPS forward, applies an exit P/E, then discounts the result back to today.
| Base EPS | $0.45 | 2025-12-31 |
| EPS growth | +60.0% | Forecast years: 5 |
| Future EPS | $4.719 | EPS × (1 + G)^5 |
| Base P/E | 78.3 | P/E |
| Future price | $369.47 | Future EPS × P/E |
| Fair value today | $229.41 | PV @ 10.0% |
| 30% safety price | $160.59 | Margin of safety |
| 50% safety price | $114.70 | Margin of safety |
| Discount rate \\ Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | -$77.156 | -$86.323 | -$98.824 |
| 10.0% | -$68.029 | -$74.788 | -$83.627 |
| 11.0% | -$60.859 | -$66.005 | -$72.524 |