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SP Plus Corporation
SPIndustrialsNASDAQUS
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For the past six months, it was my assessment that conditions suggested that short-term treasuries should be thought of as the default opportunity cost. However, I have changed my view on this. Given the culmination of events in recent weeks, I think we have emerged into a more “normal” period.
Banks kicked off Q1 2026 earnings season yesterday with a rare Goldman Sachs front-run, with JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on deck for today. The S&P 500 is projected to deliver its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth at 12.6%, fueled largely by a powerhouse 45% expansion in the information technology sector. Following Constellation Brands' lead, investors are bracing for more guidance withdrawals as corporations navigate a murky second-half outlook clouded by geopolitical tensions and volatile energy costs.
Renowned investor George Noble thinks investors should avoid S&P 500 and bonds, rotate into gold, energy, and commodities for inflation protection and upside. Tech, especially Mag-7, faces structural headwinds; valuation and business model risks; software and semis are in the 'too hard' pile.
Long-term ETF investing should remain simple and passive, avoiding frequent strategy changes and unnecessary complexity. Constantly swapping similar ETFs, chasing themes, or using currency hedging often increases costs and reduces long-term returns. Overlapping ETFs like VT and SPY can unintentionally concentrate risk rather than diversify a portfolio.
