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Greggs plc
GRG.LConsumer DefensiveLSEGB
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Estimates, scoring, valuation assumptions, and peer comparison in one research surface.
Change the assumptions to see how revenue growth, margins, and exit multiples can move fair value.
| Year | Revenue | Margin | Profit | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | £2.15B | 5.7% | £122.62M | £73.14M | N/A |
| 2027 | £2.36B | 5.7% | £134.27M | £80.09M | £72.81M |
| 2028 | £2.58B | 5.7% | £147.02M | £87.70M | £72.48M |
| 2029 | £2.82B | 5.7% | £160.99M | £96.03M | £72.15M |
| 2030 | £3.09B | 5.7% | £176.28M | £105.15M | £71.82M |
| 2031 | £3.39B | 5.7% | £193.03M | £115.14M | £71.49M |
Projects EPS forward, applies an exit P/E, then discounts the result back to today.
| Base EPS | £1.19 | 2025-12-31 |
| EPS growth | -20.5% | Forecast years: 5 |
| Future EPS | £0.378 | EPS × (1 + G)^5 |
| Base P/E | 14 | P/E |
| Future price | £5.291 | Future EPS × P/E |
| Fair value today | £3.285 | PV @ 10.0% |
| 30% safety price | £2.30 | Margin of safety |
| 50% safety price | £1.643 | Margin of safety |
| Discount rate \\ Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | £953.91 | £1,116.86 | £1,339.06 |
| 10.0% | £789.28 | £909.42 | £1,066.52 |
| 11.0% | £659.50 | £750.97 | £866.84 |