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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
FWRGConsumer CyclicalNASDAQUS
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Estimates, scoring, valuation assumptions, and peer comparison in one research surface.
Change the assumptions to see how revenue growth, margins, and exit multiples can move fair value.
| Year | Revenue | Margin | Profit | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.22B | 1.6% | $19.56M | -$30.56M | N/A |
| 2027 | $1.38B | 1.6% | $22.10M | -$34.54M | -$31.40M |
| 2028 | $1.56B | 1.6% | $24.98M | -$39.03M | -$32.25M |
| 2029 | $1.76B | 1.6% | $28.22M | -$44.10M | -$33.13M |
| 2030 | $1.99B | 1.6% | $31.89M | -$49.83M | -$34.04M |
| 2031 | $2.25B | 1.6% | $36.04M | -$56.31M | -$34.96M |
Projects EPS forward, applies an exit P/E, then discounts the result back to today.
| Base EPS | $0.31 | 2025-12-28 |
| EPS growth | +3.2% | Forecast years: 5 |
| Future EPS | $0.363 | EPS × (1 + G)^5 |
| Base P/E | 48.4 | P/E |
| Future price | $17.563 | Future EPS × P/E |
| Fair value today | $10.905 | PV @ 10.0% |
| 30% safety price | $7.634 | Margin of safety |
| 50% safety price | $5.453 | Margin of safety |
| Discount rate \\ Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | -$14.979 | -$15.865 | -$17.072 |
| 10.0% | -$14.086 | -$14.739 | -$15.593 |
| 11.0% | -$13.383 | -$13.88 | -$14.51 |