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China Aoyuan Group Limited
CAOYFReal EstateOTCCN
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Estimates, scoring, valuation assumptions, and peer comparison in one research surface.
Change the assumptions to see how revenue growth, margins, and exit multiples can move fair value.
| Year | Revenue | Margin | Profit | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $9.67B | 1.0% | $96.75M | -$145.12M | N/A |
| 2027 | $10.64B | 1.0% | $106.42M | -$159.64M | -$145.12M |
| 2028 | $11.71B | 1.0% | $117.07M | -$175.60M | -$145.12M |
| 2029 | $12.88B | 1.0% | $128.77M | -$193.16M | -$145.12M |
| 2030 | $14.16B | 1.0% | $141.65M | -$212.47M | -$145.12M |
| 2031 | $15.58B | 1.0% | $155.81M | -$233.72M | -$145.12M |
Projects EPS forward, applies an exit P/E, then discounts the result back to today.
| Base EPS | $0.007 | 2024-12-31 |
| EPS growth | +60.0% | Forecast years: 5 |
| Future EPS | $0.074 | EPS × (1 + G)^5 |
| Base P/E | 211.6 | P/E |
| Future price | $15.753 | Future EPS × P/E |
| Fair value today | $9.782 | PV @ 10.0% |
| 30% safety price | $6.847 | Margin of safety |
| 50% safety price | $4.891 | Margin of safety |
| Discount rate \\ Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | -$2.175 | -$2.184 | -$2.197 |
| 10.0% | -$2.165 | -$2.172 | -$2.181 |
| 11.0% | -$2.157 | -$2.163 | -$2.17 |