Loading market dashboard
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABAConsumer CyclicalNYSECN
Loading analysis workspace
Estimates, scoring, valuation assumptions, and peer comparison in one research surface.
Change the assumptions to see how revenue growth, margins, and exit multiples can move fair value.
| Year | Revenue | Margin | Profit | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.02T | 10.1% | $103.39B | -$51.18B | N/A |
| 2027 | $1.18T | 10.1% | $118.90B | -$58.86B | -$53.51B |
| 2028 | $1.35T | 10.1% | $136.73B | -$67.69B | -$55.94B |
| 2029 | $1.56T | 10.1% | $157.24B | -$77.84B | -$58.49B |
| 2030 | $1.79T | 10.1% | $180.83B | -$89.52B | -$61.14B |
| 2031 | $2.06T | 10.1% | $207.96B | -$102.95B | -$63.92B |
Projects EPS forward, applies an exit P/E, then discounts the result back to today.
| Base EPS | $44.00 | 2026-03-31 |
| EPS growth | -17.3% | Forecast years: 5 |
| Future EPS | $17.021 | EPS × (1 + G)^5 |
| Base P/E | 19.4 | P/E |
| Future price | $330.20 | Future EPS × P/E |
| Fair value today | $205.03 | PV @ 10.0% |
| 30% safety price | $143.52 | Margin of safety |
| 50% safety price | $102.52 | Margin of safety |
| Discount rate \\ Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | -$66.805 | -$75.822 | -$88.118 |
| 10.0% | -$57.727 | -$64.375 | -$73.069 |
| 11.0% | -$50.578 | -$55.64 | -$62.051 |