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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
ARIReal EstateNYSEUS
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Estimates, scoring, valuation assumptions, and peer comparison in one research surface.
Change the assumptions to see how revenue growth, margins, and exit multiples can move fair value.
| Year | Revenue | Margin | Profit | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $710.49M | 17.8% | $126.47M | $42.63M | N/A |
| 2027 | $568.39M | 17.8% | $101.17M | $34.10M | $31.00M |
| 2028 | $454.71M | 17.8% | $80.94M | $27.28M | $22.55M |
| 2029 | $363.77M | 17.8% | $64.75M | $21.83M | $16.40M |
| 2030 | $291.02M | 17.8% | $51.80M | $17.46M | $11.93M |
| 2031 | $232.81M | 17.8% | $41.44M | $13.97M | $8.67M |
Projects EPS forward, applies an exit P/E, then discounts the result back to today.
| Base EPS | $0.81 | 2025-12-31 |
| EPS growth | +60.0% | Forecast years: 5 |
| Future EPS | $8.493 | EPS × (1 + G)^5 |
| Base P/E | 10.6 | P/E |
| Future price | $90.031 | Future EPS × P/E |
| Fair value today | $55.902 | PV @ 10.0% |
| 30% safety price | $39.131 | Margin of safety |
| 50% safety price | $27.951 | Margin of safety |
| Discount rate \\ Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | -$61.774 | -$61.608 | -$61.382 |
| 10.0% | -$61.948 | -$61.825 | -$61.666 |
| 11.0% | -$62.086 | -$61.993 | -$61.875 |