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Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AAPConsumer CyclicalNYSEUS
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Estimates, scoring, valuation assumptions, and peer comparison in one research surface.
Change the assumptions to see how revenue growth, margins, and exit multiples can move fair value.
| Year | Revenue | Margin | Profit | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $8.60B | 1.0% | $86.01M | -$301.04M | N/A |
| 2027 | $8.84B | 1.0% | $88.42M | -$309.46M | -$281.33M |
| 2028 | $9.09B | 1.0% | $90.89M | -$318.13M | -$262.92M |
| 2029 | $9.34B | 1.0% | $93.44M | -$327.04M | -$245.71M |
| 2030 | $9.61B | 1.0% | $96.06M | -$336.19M | -$229.62M |
| 2031 | $9.87B | 1.0% | $98.74M | -$345.61M | -$214.59M |
Projects EPS forward, applies an exit P/E, then discounts the result back to today.
| Base EPS | $0.73 | 2026-01-03 |
| EPS growth | +60.0% | Forecast years: 5 |
| Future EPS | $7.655 | EPS × (1 + G)^5 |
| Base P/E | 52.9 | P/E |
| Future price | $404.93 | Future EPS × P/E |
| Fair value today | $251.43 | PV @ 10.0% |
| 30% safety price | $176.00 | Margin of safety |
| 50% safety price | $125.71 | Margin of safety |
| Discount rate \\ Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | -$156.269 | -$168.517 | -$185.219 |
| 10.0% | -$143.827 | -$152.858 | -$164.666 |
| 11.0% | -$134.008 | -$140.883 | -$149.592 |