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Alcoa Corporation
AABasic MaterialsNYSEUS
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Estimates, scoring, valuation assumptions, and peer comparison in one research surface.
Change the assumptions to see how revenue growth, margins, and exit multiples can move fair value.
| Year | Revenue | Margin | Profit | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $12.74B | 9.0% | $1.15B | $573.12M | N/A |
| 2027 | $13.13B | 9.0% | $1.18B | $590.89M | $537.17M |
| 2028 | $13.54B | 9.0% | $1.22B | $609.20M | $503.47M |
| 2029 | $13.96B | 9.0% | $1.26B | $628.09M | $471.89M |
| 2030 | $14.39B | 9.0% | $1.30B | $647.56M | $442.29M |
| 2031 | $14.84B | 9.0% | $1.34B | $667.63M | $414.55M |
Projects EPS forward, applies an exit P/E, then discounts the result back to today.
| Base EPS | $4.44 | 2025-12-31 |
| EPS growth | +60.0% | Forecast years: 5 |
| Future EPS | $46.557 | EPS × (1 + G)^5 |
| Base P/E | 12.1 | P/E |
| Future price | $563.34 | Future EPS × P/E |
| Fair value today | $349.79 | PV @ 10.0% |
| 30% safety price | $244.85 | Margin of safety |
| 50% safety price | $174.89 | Margin of safety |
| Discount rate \\ Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $37.848 | $42.879 | $49.739 |
| 10.0% | $32.739 | $36.448 | $41.298 |
| 11.0% | $28.707 | $31.531 | $35.108 |