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The Progressive Corporation
0KOC.LFinancial ServicesLSEUS
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Estimates, scoring, valuation assumptions, and peer comparison in one research surface.
Change the assumptions to see how revenue growth, margins, and exit multiples can move fair value.
| Year | Revenue | Margin | Profit | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $87.64B | 12.9% | $11.31B | $17.18B | N/A |
| 2027 | $91.58B | 12.9% | $11.81B | $17.95B | $16.32B |
| 2028 | $95.70B | 12.9% | $12.35B | $18.76B | $15.50B |
| 2029 | $100.01B | 12.9% | $12.90B | $19.60B | $14.73B |
| 2030 | $104.51B | 12.9% | $13.48B | $20.48B | $13.99B |
| 2031 | $109.21B | 12.9% | $14.09B | $21.41B | $13.29B |
Projects EPS forward, applies an exit P/E, then discounts the result back to today.
| Base EPS | $19.23 | 2025-12-31 |
| EPS growth | +33.5% | Forecast years: 5 |
| Future EPS | $81.543 | EPS × (1 + G)^5 |
| Base P/E | 11.9 | P/E |
| Future price | $970.36 | Future EPS × P/E |
| Fair value today | $602.52 | PV @ 10.0% |
| 30% safety price | $421.76 | Margin of safety |
| 50% safety price | $301.26 | Margin of safety |
| Discount rate \\ Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $392.16 | $439.57 | $504.21 |
| 10.0% | $344.08 | $379.03 | $424.73 |
| 11.0% | $306.14 | $332.75 | $366.46 |