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Keyera Corp (KEY:CA) remains a compelling Canadian NGL infrastructure play, but I downgrade from strong buy to buy after a 25% stock gain and multiple expansion. The Plains Canadian NGL acquisition closed, but faces a Competition Bureau tribunal that introduces binary short-term risk, potentially impacting deal synergies. Fee-based growth projects like KAPS and KFS Frac III are progressing on schedule and budget, supporting 7–8% EBITDA CAGR guidance and derisking the forward outlook.

Investment in ACE Rail Terminal to strengthen Canada's energy competitiveness, expand access to global markets and support long-term economic growth Investment in ACE Rail Terminal to strengthen Canada's energy competitiveness, expand access to global markets and support long-term economic growth

Keyera TSE: KEY said it closed its acquisition of Plains' Canadian natural gas liquids business two days before its first-quarter conference call, describing the transaction as a major expansion of its integrated platform while also noting that the deal is now before the Competition Tribunal.

Keyera Corp. (KEY:CA) Shareholder/Analyst Call Transcript

Keyera Corp. (KEY:CA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

The Competition Bureau said the planned $3.7 billion transaction would reduce competition at a crucial natural-gas liquids-processing hub in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta.
