Plains All American: Backwardation Might Ruin The Party

Geopolitical tensions have driven oil prices higher and created market backwardation, testing PAA's reduced reliance on arbitrage and trading revenues. PAA's EBITDA guidance for FY'26 is $2.75B, but higher oil prices could lift this to $2.84B, supporting a bullish rating at an 11.5x EV/EBITDA multiple. Despite recent share gains, potential downside exists if lost arbitrage revenue outweighs contract tailwinds amid ongoing market disruptions.