Ultrapar: The Discount That Chevron Saw And Most Investors Did Not

I'm upgrading Ultrapar from hold to buy, driven by a potential Chevron acquisition of a 30% stake in Ipiranga. UGP's market cap undervalues its non-Ipiranga businesses, which are now growing faster and contributing more to EBITDA. If Chevron pays $1.5 billion for 30% of Ipiranga, the market should re-rate UGP's multiples, implying at least 33% upside.