AI Has A Power Problem, And Vistra Owns The Answer

I am rating Vistra a Strong Buy because AI is turning electricity into a scarce asset and Vistra owns the kind of dispatchable power portfolio that data centers need. The key growth drivers are AI-driven data center demand, PJM nuclear scarcity, ERCOT load growth and Cogentrix gas acquisition. These drivers should lift EBITDA by $500Mn. My Price Target is $220 and is based on using a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple and $8.1Bn of 2027 EBITDA. This represents a 48% potential upside.