TransMedics: Rapidly Scaling Business Nears Free Cash Flow Breakeven

TransMedics is positioned for accelerating growth, with revenue expected to expand around 25% in 2026 and free cash flow breakeven by late 2026 or early 2027. TMDX is over the crest of its capex cycle, with investment pressures expected to ease, supporting margin expansion toward a 30% target by 2028. Despite a weak balance sheet and potential for 15% shareholder dilution in 2026, I remain bullish as long as revenue growth stays above 20% y/y.