HCA Healthcare: Policy Pressures May Be Limiting Admissions (Upgrade)

HCA Healthcare is upgraded to "Hold" after a 12% pullback, and is now trading near fair value with a 7% free cash flow yield. Q1 results were mixed: EPS matched expectations, revenue grew 4%, but surgical volumes softened and margins retraced 50 bps. Policy headwinds, including Medicaid and ACA subsidy rollbacks, are expected to temper growth to 2%-3% annually over the next several years.