Barclays: Buy Retained, External Factors Reduce Upside Confidence

Barclays PLC delivered a Q1 2026 pre-tax profit nearly in line with consensus, despite material one-off charges. Barclays UK missed pre-tax profit consensus by ~6% due to higher operating costs, but management maintains guidance for FY26E expenses below FY25 levels. Management appears overly optimistic on bad debt provisions, with risks from the Iran war underappreciated.