Keyera Corp: Risk-Reward Shifting But Still Bullish

Keyera Corp (KEY:CA) remains a compelling Canadian NGL infrastructure play, but I downgrade from strong buy to buy after a 25% stock gain and multiple expansion. The Plains Canadian NGL acquisition closed, but faces a Competition Bureau tribunal that introduces binary short-term risk, potentially impacting deal synergies. Fee-based growth projects like KAPS and KFS Frac III are progressing on schedule and budget, supporting 7–8% EBITDA CAGR guidance and derisking the forward outlook.