Brazilian Potash In 2026E - Very Compelling, Despite Risk

Brazil Potash (GRO) is a pre-revenue potash developer aiming to replace 25% of Brazil's potash imports with domestic supply via the Autazes project. GRO's Autazes mine targets 2.4M tonnes/year, boasts high-grade ore, logistical advantages, binding offtake agreements for 91% of output, and strong management. I value GRO at $14/share on projected $1B EBITDA, conservatively discounting to a $7/share price target; current price is $3.65, offering ~100% speculative upside.