MiMedx: The Hard Math Behind My Downgrade To Hold

MiMedx Group faces a sharp downgrade from Buy to Hold as 2026 revenue guidance drops to $260–$290 million from $340–$360 million. Q1 2026 saw a 33% revenue decline, with wound care sales down 60% and surgical portfolio growth at 13%, reflecting permanent reimbursement headwinds. My DCF model, updated for lower revenue and margin assumptions, now values MDXG at $3.93 per share—just 6% above the current price, making upside limited.