TransDigm: Commercial Exposure Drives Sell-Off, But Valuation Now Attractive

TransDigm (TDG) shares have declined over 10%, but I maintain a buy rating with a $1,537 price target, implying 32% upside. Commercial aftermarket exposure presents risk from geopolitical tensions and cost inflation, but earnings estimates have held up relatively well. TDG is expected to deliver 10.5% annual sales growth and nearly 20% annual free cash flow growth through 2028, with margins dipping slightly before recovering.