Abivax: Obefazimod's Strategic Scarcity Drives Optionality (Maintaining Buy)

Abivax remains a buy, with Obefezimod showing best-in-class efficacy and safety in ulcerative colitis and potential in Crohn's disease. Updated phase 3 and UEG safety data further de-risk ABVX, supporting earlier line use and expanding market potential beyond refractory patients. I raise my probability of success to 95%, increasing the 12-month target price to $140 per share, reflecting ~25% upside.