Mercury Systems: Buy Maintained, But Cost Inflation Is The Swing Factor

Mercury Systems, Inc. remains a Buy, with a base case price target of $97.53 (18% upside) and a more bullish target of $113.45 (37% upside). MRCY benefits from long-term demand for defense microelectronics but faces near-term risks from supply chain fragility and rising input costs due to geopolitical tensions. Recent estimate revisions show minimal change in annual revenue and EBITDA, but Q3 2026 EPS was trimmed 70% as non-recurring material receipts were excluded from ongoing guidance.