Sempra: Oncor's 127 GW Pipeline Could Redefine Its Earnings Power

I am rating Sempra a Strong Buy because Oncor's 127 GW qualifying load forecast creates a much larger long-term transmission and distribution opportunity for the company. The biggest growth driver is Oncor's large-load opportunity in Texas. I estimate that if only 20 GW of Oncor's 127 GW load converts, it could create $17 billion of incremental rate base. My price target is $163, representing a 76% potential upside. I arrive at the PT by using a 21x FWD earnings multiple and a 2030 EPS estimate of $7.74.