TransMedics: Cheaper, But Still Priced For Perfection

TransMedics Group, Inc. remains a Sell as its valuation still bakes in near-perfect execution, despite the stock being nearly 40% cheaper since October. TMDX's valuation implies sustaining some combination of between 9–20% revenue growth and 9–17% free cash flow margins, which remains a high bar given current trends. Growth levers like CHOPS, international expansion, and potential OPO conversion are either hedges, slow-moving, or highly uncertain, making current valuation hard to justify.