Amazon Q1: $200B In FY26 CapEx For A $15B Run-Rate Story

In my view, $15B in Amazon.com, Inc.'s AWS AI services ARR is not enough to justify a $200B FY26 CapEx plan. At least, not yet. I want to see AWS AI services ARR increase significantly over the next few quarters, since it still represents only 10% of AWS's run rate. AWS grew 24% in Q4, and I want to see Q1 revenue coming in clearly above the $36.8B consensus.