CF Industries: The Iran Premium Is A Double-Edged Sword (Downgrade)

CF Industries is rated Buy, reflecting ongoing undervaluation despite recent gains driven by Middle East conflict disruptions. CF's Q1 outperformance stemmed from higher fertilizer prices due to curtailed Middle East supply, but this boost is likely temporary. Strong balance sheet, $2.04 billion in cash and equivalents, and substantial buyback authorization position CF for resilience and capital returns.